The four eastern Ukrainian states were put into Russia, with an area of 109,000 square kilometers. Can it really be fulfilled?
Release time：2023-02-07 06:00:10 source：korpimaankyynel.com author：Mountains and rivers
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The four eastern Ukrainian states were put into Russia, with an area of 109,000 square kilometers. Can it really be fulfilled?
From September 23 to September 27, 2022, 4 states in eastern Ukraine will hold a referendum to join Russia. Is it really possible for them to join Russia? A referendum is a vote for all residents of the state to decide whether to join Russia. From the fact that the referendum can be held, it shows Russia's ability to control these four regions, so it is no surprise that these four states will be merged into the Russian Federation. These four regions are located in a row in southeastern Ukraine, namely Luhansk and Donetsk, which border Russia, and Zaporozhye and Kherson, which are across the sea from Russia. The combined area is 109,000 square kilometers, which is larger than the land area of Portugal. If you add Crimea, which voted to join Russia in 2014, Ukraine will lose a total of 135,000 square kilometers of land, accounting for more than one-tenth of Ukraine's total area. Why did Russia start a referendum in the eastern Ukrainian region at this time? In fact, it has been more than 7 months since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out at the end of February 2022. The world seems to be exhausted. Even when Indian President Modi met Putin, he expressed his wish for the war to end as soon as possible. , Watching the lively but aesthetic fatigue. In the hot land of Eastern Europe, will the aesthetics of violence between Ukraine and Russia continue to be staged? It depends on what Ukraine will do next, whether to swallow it up like it lost the Crimea Peninsula before, or choose to fight to the death. Although we don't want to see an escalation of the conflict, after all, Russia has nuclear weapons in its hands, and it cannot be rushed. But Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, will certainly not rest on its laurels. Since September, the Ukrainian army has taken advantage of the emptiness of the Russian army, and with the support of the West, the Ukrainian army has made great strides to regain lost ground. Russia has begun to issue wartime mobilization orders. It must be known that since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the two sides have not officially declared war. Now this posture seems to be unavoidable. After all, in Ukraine's view, Russia is deceiving people too much. In Russia's view, the strategic situation is more important, and the integration of the eastern Ukrainian region into Russia is conducive to its own strategic security. When the four eastern states are put into Russia, Ukraine not only loses its land but also loses its strategic position. So what impact do these four states have on both sides? For Ukraine, the loss this time is huge. When it lost Crimea in 2014, Ukraine was blocked by Russia in the Sea of Azov. If there is no Crimea Peninsula geographically, the Sea of Azov will be a bay in the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia are at most rivals in the Black Sea, but with the Crimea Peninsula, Ukraine can not only further contain Russia in the Sea of Azov, And on the east coast of the Black Sea, there is a trump card to defend Russia, and now this card is already in Russia's hands. Now Russia goes a step further, and if the referendum is successful, from Luhansk to the west will connect Donetsk on the coast of the Sea of Azov, next to Zaporozhye and Kherson, and Kherson to the Crimei The Asian peninsula, finally facing Russia only across a strait, turned the Azov Sea into Russia's inland sea, and Russia's strategic pressure in the southwest will be much reduced. But the four states that Ukraine has lost are not only land but also strategic locations and resources. Luhansk, located in the easternmost part, is an important coal and mineral resource base in Ukraine, and the main industries here are machinery manufacturing and chemical industry. Losing it means losing important industrial resources. The neighboring Donetsk is also an important industrial base, with the largest population of 4.2 million in the four states, and also has mines. Zaporozhye, located in the southeast, faces the Sea of Azov in the south, and flows through the Dnieper River that runs through Ukraine in the north. There are two large reservoirs, the Dnieper Reservoir and the Kakhovka Reservoir, so it is not only an important grain base in Ukraine, but also an important The power base of Ukraine, which supplies 25% of Ukraine's national electricity, loses its granary and energy storage if it is lost. Further southwest along the Dnieper, downstream flows through Kherson. Kherson is located in southern Ukraine and has the smallest population of only 1 million among the four states. However, due to the very good natural environment, there are many nature reserves, and the land is fertile and agriculture is developed. It is the largest agricultural state in Ukraine. It is equivalent to losing the vegetable basket and the fruit basket. Moreover, it is connected by land to Crimea, which was merged into Russia by the referendum. However, the land connection is very thin. The Crimea Peninsula is actually more like an island, and freshwater resources are relatively scarce. If Kherson also voted this time. Entering Russia, Russia-controlled Crimea can divert water from the Dnieper River. Recently, the four states in eastern Ukraine have been put into Russia. Once successful, the Russian army is bound to enter strongly. Will Ukraine let it go? For Russia to come this far, it may also be unexpected, or it may be a last resort. After all, when the Soviet Union split up, Russia has already recognized Ukraine’s independent status. Although there are many Russian ethnic groups and pro-Russian forces in the eastern Ukrainian region, they are Ukrainian territory after all. Beginning with the Crimea incident in 2014, Ukraine and Russia have formed a relationship, and then the pro-Russian armed forces in Luhansk and Donetsk were attacked by the Ukrainian government forces, and then to the current referendum. In fact, the earliest Russia took advantage of Ukraine was to gain the advantage of its strategic posture. After all, Ukraine is in the west of Russia and is a strategic buffer zone for Russia to face Western aggression. And Ukraine is neither willing to be Russia's buffer zone nor to strike a balance between the East and the West. Instead, it will turn to the West to point at Russia, which will inevitably be a lesson from Russia. After being attacked, Ukraine is still cowardly The cowardly attitude makes the current conflict more and more out of control. As long as Ukraine has a little sense of current affairs and understands Russia's strategic security concerns, Russia will not hold a referendum in these four states in the eastern Ukrainian region. Because Russia dismembers other countries in a referendum, even if there is a big strategic reason, it is also at a moral disadvantage. Next, if Ukraine refuses to admit it, according to Russia’s character, this war will inevitably escalate, because as long as the referendum in the four states is successful, although most of the international community will not admit it, Russia will definitely give them a name and send troops to enter the country. And it will not be like the current occupation state, if you can defend it, you will defend it. Because this means pushing Russia's territory westward, Russia's area will also increase by 100,000 square kilometers, and Russia will also be bound to defend itself. However, Ukraine's attitude is that Ukrainian citizens who dare to participate in the referendum will face 5 years in prison, but the people do not seem to take this seriously, and Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev directly said that the newly added territories can use nuclear weapons for defense, I don't know if I'm being rude or if I really dare to do it. But in the final analysis, it is Ukraine's geographical problem. It is sandwiched between the two major forces of Russia and the West. The geographical location cannot be moved. The next problem between Russia and Ukraine still needs the compromise and wisdom of both sides to solve.
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