Bad weather in 2022, will it get worse after 2023? Does the solar cycle affect climate?
Release time：2023-03-23 18:43:21 source：korpimaankyynel.com author：Climate
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Bad weather in 2022, will it get worse after 2023? Does the solar cycle affect climate?
Potential threat of warming
2021 will be the 7 warmest on record, according to data released by the World Meteorological Organization in the summer of 2022 one of the years. The year's climate temperature was 1.11°C higher than the pre-industrial level, and the global average temperature rose slightly by more than 1°C for the seventh consecutive year. According to the data report given by NOAA, some people may think that there are still strong winds and heavy rain in many areas. Why is it so hot? In fact, this is due to the impact of the La Niña event. As a global climate event, the climate near La Niña will be cooler and more rainy. Even with frequent cooling in these regions, global temperature increases are already an overall trend. The cooling brought about by La Niña is not enough to cool the earth. In La Niña years, that is, the two years since 2021, the global average temperature will drop by about 0.1 to 0.2 °C. The La Niña event has caused a drop in average global surface temperatures compared to recent years, with cooler conditions in Australia, southern Africa and northwestern North America in 2021. La Niña events have implications, but are of little use. Unless the world experiences a strong La Niña again soon, humanity will continue to see warmer conditions than 2022 in the predictable future climate unless net global greenhouse gas emissions stop. The global climate system has been disrupted today, and scientists cannot effectively observe the weather for more than 10 days, but they can still make some basic predictions for the future climate in 2022. The extreme heat event in 2022 has already brought to light the impact and risks of heat, and even as we begin to address this climate change with greater urgency now, we will experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the years to come. This requires us to increase our adaptive capacity to deal with these extreme conditions, especially in urban areas need to strengthen the adaptation to high temperature. After 2022, the global climate will continue to warm until humans stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It is clear that such heat waves and high temperature events are not accidental, and the situation facing the Arctic will be more complicated. Although human factors play a dominant role in high temperature events, how much influence does the natural environment have on Earth's climate? Climate warming in recent years began in July 2022, with scientists finding frequent energy releases from the sun and massive activity of sunspots. The level of solar activity observed by scientists has risen over the past decade, and the new cycle is about 2 years old, with a peak in 2025. For the record, the 25th cycle in 2025 appears to be stronger than one might expect. When the sun reaches this cycle, the sun will have about 125 sunspots that are actively active, which is more than the 115 sunspots in the 24th cycle. So in terms of the relationship between the earth and the sun, is the sun also an accomplice of the global high temperature? Is the sun an accomplice to climate change?What is the solar cycle
On this question, let’s take a good look at the solar cycle, what it is, and how it affects the earth , and the impact on Earth's climate change. The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year cycle of solar activity driven by the sun's magnetic field and indicated by the frequency and intensity of sunspots visible on the surface. However, the solar cycle is highly variable and difficult to predict. The short cycle is only 8 years, the long cycle can reach 14 years, and the intensity difference will vary. In terms of the current solar cycle, December 2019 begins at solar cycle 25 and is expected to reach an active maximum by 2025. The main reason for the occurrence of the solar cycle is the change of the sun's magnetic field. The sun itself is an energy body, which can be regarded as a very huge plasma ball. About every 11 years or so, the sun's magnetic poles flip, and it's this change that affects activity on the sun's surface. In a NASA study, Phil Scherer, a solar physicist at Stanford University, said that the solar polar magnetic field, which is in the solar cycle, weakens and eventually becomes zero. The Sun will then become active again with the opposite polarity, a major change in the solar cycle. When the sun's magnetic poles flip, it affects the entire solar system. Because of the heliosphere, the region of space affected by the solar wind extends billions of kilometers beyond Pluto. Planets that are not protected by a magnetic field, such as Venus, would be severely affected. In an observation in 2006, the sun ejected a small coronal material, which brought a large amount of plasma and magnetic interference, and greatly affected the climate of Venus. Sunspots on the surface of the sun It is worth mentioning that the magnetic pole reversal is not unique to the sun. The earth also has a magnetic pole reversal. The reason is the plasma movement inside the earth's core. According to NASA's assessments, Earth's magnetic pole flips once every 300,000 years on average, the last time it was 780,000 years ago. During the solar cycle, sunspot activity also changes. During a solar cycle, the number of sunspots goes from low to high, and then to the lowest. The performance of solar cycle changes is also an important process for astronomers to discover solar cycle activity. As early as 1826, amateur astronomer Heinrich Schwabe discovered the activity changes of sunspots in 11 years when observing the sun. Predicting and monitoring the solar cycle is important so we can prepare for changes in solar activity. Because when the solar cycle is at its peak, the weather conditions in space can change dramatically. It poses communications risks to Earth, satellites, and even astronauts working in space. Sunspots vary during solar activity. The appearance of auroras is an indication of the solar cycle, and auroras appear in polar regions because high-energy particles erupted from the sun hit and interact with the Earth's upper atmosphere. The reason why it appears green is because there are a lot of oxygen molecules in the atmosphere, and if there are more nitrogen molecules, it will appear red. Magnetic field changes caused by solar activity In the past recorded solar cycle activity events, there are three cases of changes caused by increased solar activity. Mainly due to the interference of long-distance communication, the impact of charged particles on outer space missions, and the directional eruption of the earth causing power outages in parts of the earth, such as the 1989 Quebec power outage. Solar activity is dangerous for astronautsReflections on climate warming
Finally looking at the impact of the solar cycle on Earth’s climate change, scientists say, Solar activity does affect our climate, but not much. Since human beings observed changes in the solar cycle, at the peak stage of the cycle, the global average temperature caused by solar activity has risen by 0.05-0.1°C. In fact, scientists have explored the relationship between climate change and solar activity for decades. According to the UN Government's Climate Change Committee, the scientific community currently agrees that long and short cycles of solar activity have little effect on Earth's climate. Based on past historical records, the amount of solar energy received by Earth follows the sun's natural 11-year cycle of rising and falling, with no net increase since 1950. During the same period, the global temperature has risen significantly. The above figure compares the temperature changes since 1880, and the conclusion given by "Climate Dynamics" in July 2021 shows that the analysis and comparison of climate observation data and large climate models found that the 11-year cycle activity of the earth is not consistent with solar fluctuations. Synchronize. Although there are still doubts about this systematic connection, in the related research, there is not a single article in the hundreds of academic literatures around the world that either agrees or strongly disagrees with it. In addition, since 1978, scientists have also used sensors on satellites to track the connection between the two. Facts have proved that global warming and solar activity have little effect. About the findings between the two If the sun is the main cause of global warming, then we should be able to observe warming from the surface to the upper atmosphere. However, this part of the region did not have this change. The actual situation is that the surface has become warmer and the stratosphere is cooler, which further shows that global warming is caused by the accumulation of a large amount of heat-absorbing gas near the surface. Human activity is always the one that has the greatest impact. In summary, the sun is currently at a low level of activity. The sun's magnetic field is weakening, sunspots are becoming fewer, and ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth is also decreasing. In general, global climate events are a very complex climate behavior, and scientists have been working on related strategies for the past few decades. Today we are dealing with massive greenhouse gas emissions and the deterioration caused by industrialization, instead human activities may be the real cause.- Last：50 common knowledge of world geography, how much do you know
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